Category Archives: Copper

#MTR – everything is aligned for a share price rerate.

Many analysts, chartists, bloggers and twitter posters are predicting the Metal Tiger share price is going to re-rate upwards.

Many follow what analysts and chartist ‘experts’ say and this can become a self-fulfilling prophesy. The herd arrive and the share price goes up.

The Swiss Cheese model suggests that when everything aligned the unexpected happens. The share price rise could therefore when it happens according to the theory be significant.

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We have for several days now had share price rises of 3%+ a day with a c14% rise over the last week.

 

1. Resource  increases

These have been happening for a while and are covered in these two blogs.

MTR stunning results under T3. link

MTR results due. link

MOD Resources our partner will be issuing additional data in the very near term (possibly this week). This information is expected to significantly increase the T3 resource and translate into better NPV and IRR figures.

Obviously the price of copper breaching the $3 a pound level for the first time since November 2014 (see here) also significantly increases the potential returns from the T3 prospect.

 

2. Strong fundamentals, business strategy and leadership

Charles Hall (Chairman) and Michael McNeilly (CEO) interview highlights the changes that are taking place.

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This link takes you to an interview with Charles and Michael.

Metal Tiger is a private investor friendly business. It was no surprise when Charles a private investor with a T1 holding was appointed Chairman.

3. Thailand IPO 

The Thailand IPO will be announced soon.

Metal Tiger shareholders will be ‘gifted’ shares in the new business KEMCO.

The positive noises coming from Kingsgate and the Thailand Government regarding the Chatree mine are also a positive for those involved in mining in Thailand.

 

Conclusion

The cheese holes are aligning, with many aligned and long term holders are about to reap the rewards.

Those that hope to benefit from keeping the share price low will soon be shocked by a significant sp re-rate. The share price re-rate will be quick and the impact devastating for those who haven’t realised it’s coming.

 

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Metal Tiger investing in #Thailand. #MTR

The Thailand IPO is due to happen in June/July 2017.

This will be when Metal Tiger shareholders will be ‘given’ shares in KEMCO the new Thai company.

Not many companies you can invest in knowing that in the very near future you will be the beneficiary of shares in another company. What is even more compelling is the current share price of Metal Tiger doesn’t take into account any value for Thailand.

KEMCO will be launched in June/July and this will be followed by events that will potentially have a positive impact on the share price. These being:

1. Thailand new permitting requirements goes live in August.

2. MTR apply for relevant permits August.

3. Kingsgate started their 3 month consultation period regarding the closure of their Thai mine at tthe beginning of April. Positive outcome announced July/August would have impact on sentiment towards KEMCO.

4. Directors and Major shareholders of MTR have been exercising their warrants. If this continues it is a clear indication all are preparing to ensure they are entitled to as many ‘free’ KEMCO shares as possible.

5. Announcement about key investors who have taken part in the KEMCO IPO.

Thailand venture is approaching a 3 month period when announcements are expected that will have a positive impact on market sentiment.

 

We also have Botswana with the current delay associated with environmental permits due to come to an end as announcements on applications submitted and awarded released to market.

 

Tiger shareholders who have researched the business can see the bottleneck of news that is coming. Investor sentiment could change overnight with the announcement of any one of the above events.

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Chartists all predicting significant uplift in #MTR share price

The Metal Tiger share price is currently 2.95p.

The following Chartists all predict a significant uplift to the share price is imminent.

Bonkers99

Predicting share price will increase with a target of 7p – c13p

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Nic Trades

Predicting share price will rise to a target of 4.1p to 5.87p

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Emergo Charts

Using the Elliot Wave Theory predicting share price of  4.17p – 4.75p.

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Zac Mir

In this video Zac predicts share price will test 4.5p.

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The Chartists are therefore predicting an uplift of the share price of between 39% and 340%.

This is also supported  by the fact that all the indicators are that everything is becoming aligned fir a share rerate (see here).

 

This graphic indicates the near term news and events that could push the share price higher.

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Finally this chart indicates the disparity between the MOD Resources share price and Metal Tigers.

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All the indicators are the current Metal Tiger share price of 2.95p makes no sense and a rerate is going to happen.

 

#MTR – Swiss cheese model and the impact on the share price.

Analysts and Chartists are predicting the Metal Tiger share price is going to re-rate upwards.

Many follow what these ‘experts’ say and this can become a self-fulfilling prophesy. The herd arrive and the share price goes up.

The Swiss Cheese model suggests that when everything aligned the unexpected happens. The share price rise could therefore when it happens according to the theory be significant.

IMG_1317

1. Resource  increases

These have been happening for a while and are covered in these two blogs.

MTR stunning results under T3. link

MTR results due. link

MTR RNS dated the 6th March (see here) also highlights that data will be released to the market soon.

 

2. Strong fundamentals, business strategy and leadership

Charles Hall (Chairman) and Michael McNeilly (CEO) recently appointed with other board changes.

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This link takes you to an interview with Charles and Michael. Interview highlights the changes that have and will be taking place.

Metal Tiger is a private investor friendly business. It was no surprise when Charles a private investor with a T1 holding was appointed Chairman.

3. Analysts all agree share price will head North 

a) Broker99

Broker99 a Chartist who seems to get it right more than wrong, predicts a breakout of the sp at 2.7p with a prediction that will rise to 4p+ and then 6p plus, when, if more news comes could go to c21p.

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This Chartist also points out that support is now very strong at the 2.2p level, significantly reducing any downside risk.

We also have Star Tom from Blueshare predicting a share price breakout.IMG_1331

The support and resistance points on the above charts are similar to analysis from Barchart.com. See table below.

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Other Chartists such as Zak Mir have also strongly supported Metal Tiger predicting share price movement North.

b) Technical Data (comparing MTR and MOD Resources).

Looking at the technical data for MTR and MOD indicates that both are strong buys.

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What is interesting with the data is both companies share price movement is primarily based on the Botswana prospect news. Because MTR’s share price is being held back it means MOD buy opinion is 50% stronger than MTR’s.

This distortion has to correct its self eventually.

c) Technical data

The following tables highlight for those who trade based on technical analysis that MTR is a very strong buy.

4. Investor awareness and sentiment change

Investor  awareness is definitely changing and this is evidenced by the following:

a) Wider awareness.

MTR has for a while been discussed predominately on the following forums:

  • Blueshare
  • LSE
  • Hotcopper

Over the last week discussion has also been happening on:

  • Ceo.ca
  • Discussthemarket.com
  • Stockgumshoe.com

This indicates Metal Tiger investor awareness base is widening.

b) Trading volumes

Volumes of share trades are also increasing. Following table indicates average volume has gone from 6.5m to 12m in the last 6 months.

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Twice as much interest. This as the share price increases creates a solid new investor base. Those who trade are now in at a higher price than previously, meaning to realise a profit the sp needs to rise higher.

c) Negative comments about MTR business

LSE is a forum that several posters use to spread negative comments, as they either have or work for somebody with a short position. It is noticeable the number of these posters has significantly decreased.

Some are now actively promoting MTR indicating they have gone long. We now only have one or two left who either are carrying baggage against individuals connected with MTR or who enjoy being confrontational.

Sentiment on bulletin boards is definitely changing and now mainly has a positive bias.

 

Conclusion

Mice are nibbling around the edges trying to prevent the sp from rising. The cheese holes are however all aligning, with many aligned and LTH’s are about to reap the rewards.

Those that hope to benefit from keeping the share price low will soon be shocked by a significant sp re-rate. The share price rerate will be quick and the impact devastating for those who haven’t realised it’s coming.

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Possible reasons why the Metal Tiger share price has not reacted to the significant news from Botswana can be found here.

#MTR stunning results from under T3.

On the 17th February Michael McNeilly said in an RNS that what was under the known T3 resource would probably be a larger resource.

Today MOD Resources released an ANN (see here). Julian Hanna stated:

 

“This new intersection exceeds the width and grade of the overlying T3 resource which is several times wider than most copper deposits in the Kalahari Copper Belt”.

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The disparity between MOD resources share price and Metal Tigers share price has become even larger overnight with MOD sp rising by another 15% on the news.

We await with interest the release of the MTR RNS this morning.

It is clear the Metal Tiger sp will re-rate. The only question is when and by how much.

We must by now have reached the point that anybody shorting the stock would be better off moving to other feeding grounds.

#MTR news due?

Metal Tiger share price is drifting, whilst we await news about the Thai IPO and news from Botswana.

What we know is significant news will land soon.

Thailand

You only have to look at the significant number of consultants who MTR have engaged to progress the Thai IPO including:

Barr Consultants – Mine Plan for permitting submission and Tailings Dam stability Assessment.
GWRC – Hydrogeology Study
IEM – Environmental Plan and Second Baseline Study
5 Corners – Economic Study for permitting submission

Other consultants to appoint according to the RNS dated 11th January being:

  • Underground Air Quality Assessment and Stability Assessment
  • Tailings Geochemistry
  • Resource re-calculation
  • Updated AIM Standard compliant Preliminary Economic Assessment

Botswana

Inclement weather delayed progress early January. Since then however drilling progress has continued and we now await data from the MOD team.

Good results are expected. One of the drillers posted six photos of a section of core indicating visible copper. Why would he bother to take 6 photos of this section of core?

 

This isn’t a one-off. The following photo taken on the 3rd February indicates a recent core with visible copper. We will probably have to wait 3-4 weeks before the analysis of this core is released to the market.

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The next batch of analysis results released by MOD Resources are going to be interesting.

 

 

#MTR fund raising and MOD Resources.

Metal Tiger placing has created some unrest amongst smaller private investors with many believing the dilution of their shareholdings has benefited the BOD and major investors.

In fact the BOD and major investors have also seen their shareholdings diluted.

So why has the Metal Tiger placing happened when the share price so low?

What we do know is MOD have said they intend to drill the life out of T3. To do that they need funding.

We now have A$5.46m (c£3.19m) raised by MOD resources with institutional investors partaking. MOD Resources are ready to start drilling T3 in early January 2017.

What would have happened to the MTR share price if they hadn’t already had their placing? In all probability the MTR share price would have gone down as investors would know MTR need to fund 30% of the T3 exploration. This scenario would have resulted in the MTR placing being at lower levels than has already occurred.

It looks like MTR had no choice but to raise the necessary funding when they did.

We know the CEO of MTR and MOD BOD members, together, attended meetings with potential funders during MOD boards recent visit to the UK. Is it possible as a result of these meetings, institutional investors indicated willingness to invest in MOD?

If that’s the case this could explain why MTR offered warrants as part of their placing and MOD haven’t.

It is going to be interesting to see what happens to the share price of MTR as a result of this news.

Investing is about the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.

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