Category Archives: Mining

Invest in Metal Tiger #MTR or MOD Resources #MOD?

The recent brokers note on MOD Resources indicated a target, giving an uplift of 50% to the current share price (see here).

This target is based predominantly on the T3 prospect, a joint venture with Metal Tiger (70/30% split).

IMG_1788Investors wanting to invest in this copper prospect in Botswana, have a choice, invest in Metal Tiger (MTR) or invest in MOD Resources (MOD).

Because of:

1. British Pound vs Australian dollar exchange rate

2. MOD has significantly more shares in issue the MTR

3. 70% MOD, 30% MTR split

4. MTR having 5% of MOD share capital

the returns should the T3 prospect be sold and capital returned to shareholders would currently favour MTR investors.

Looking at  the pros and cons for investing in MTR vs MOD,you need to consider the following:

1. MOD have announced over the next year they will be investing A$10m in Botswana. 75% of this investment will be used on MOD/MTR prospects. The downside is what the exploration within MOD 100% areas will discover.

2. MTR JV covers several MOD prospect areas. All the areas highlighted in orange in this table.IMG_10073. MTR will be announcing this month details of the Thailand IPO (KEMCO). MTR shareholders will receive ‘free’ shares in KEMCO. Currently the MTR share price doesn’t include any value for Thailand.

4. Disparity between MOD and MTR share price. MOD share price has increased whilst the MTR share price has stagnated.

IMG_1858At some stage you would expect MTR share price to increase and for the gap to close. Alternatively it could be MOD over priced.

5.  Copper price now over $3/lb. This is still below the 5 year high with many analysts predicting the price will continue its rise.

6. Having met the management of both companies they come across as professional and competent.

7. Assays due from the holes drilled on T3 when drilling recommenced in the first week of August. We already know visible copper present. What will happen to the share price if significant results or trading halt called due to ASX requirements? Could this result in a spike in the MTR sp as trading will not be halted on the AIM market?

8. Sprott took a significant investment in MTR. Why didn’t they invest in MOD when they did their placing? Have they decided that MTR is the better investment?

9. Finance – both MTR and MOD have significant capital to fund drilling.

10. NPV of A$210m for T3/T1 is only going to increase as data analysed.

Looking at these 10 points, the following graphic indicates the best investment, MOD or MTR (white = neutral, green MTR, red MOD).

IMG_1793

 

Near term more value is going to come from MTR/MOD JV licence areas rather than those owned 100% by MOD.

If somebody wanted more exposure to the other MOD licence areas, you could put a strong case forward to invest in MTR, take the potential near term gains and then invest in MOD.

Another consideration would be each businesses other interests such as MOD’s Sams Creek asset and MTR’s investment portfolio.

MOD or MTR, it looks like September is going to be a very interesting time for the share price.

The recently released MOD, Ocean presentation and brokers note made me question if I should invest directly in MOD. I have concluded that investing in MTR offers the greatest potential.

If MOD and MTR merged (after the KEMCO split), this would remove the requirement for investors to make the decision and also simplify the acquisition process, if a major copper business was interested in the business. 

Investors who invest now are in at basement level prices. It’s just a matter of sitting and waiting for the BOD’s of both businesses to deliver.

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#MTR – everything is aligned for a share price rerate.

Many analysts, chartists, bloggers and twitter posters are predicting the Metal Tiger share price is going to re-rate upwards.

Many follow what analysts and chartist ‘experts’ say and this can become a self-fulfilling prophesy. The herd arrive and the share price goes up.

The Swiss Cheese model suggests that when everything aligned the unexpected happens. The share price rise could therefore when it happens according to the theory be significant.

IMG_1317

We have for several days now had share price rises of 3%+ a day with a c14% rise over the last week.

 

1. Resource  increases

These have been happening for a while and are covered in these two blogs.

MTR stunning results under T3. link

MTR results due. link

MOD Resources our partner will be issuing additional data in the very near term (possibly this week). This information is expected to significantly increase the T3 resource and translate into better NPV and IRR figures.

Obviously the price of copper breaching the $3 a pound level for the first time since November 2014 (see here) also significantly increases the potential returns from the T3 prospect.

 

2. Strong fundamentals, business strategy and leadership

Charles Hall (Chairman) and Michael McNeilly (CEO) interview highlights the changes that are taking place.

IMG_1320

This link takes you to an interview with Charles and Michael.

Metal Tiger is a private investor friendly business. It was no surprise when Charles a private investor with a T1 holding was appointed Chairman.

3. Thailand IPO 

The Thailand IPO will be announced soon.

Metal Tiger shareholders will be ‘gifted’ shares in the new business KEMCO.

The positive noises coming from Kingsgate and the Thailand Government regarding the Chatree mine are also a positive for those involved in mining in Thailand.

 

Conclusion

The cheese holes are aligning, with many aligned and long term holders are about to reap the rewards.

Those that hope to benefit from keeping the share price low will soon be shocked by a significant sp re-rate. The share price re-rate will be quick and the impact devastating for those who haven’t realised it’s coming.

 

Is Regency Mines #RGM share price a joke?

The following graphic indicates that based on Vali Carbon Corporation alone the revenue for RGM will be a minimum of £9.3m per year and if output reaches 100,000 tpm £18.6m.

IMG_1566

These revenue figures take no account of:

  • Rosa – year 2 production expected to be 120,000 tpm = revenue of £22.32m/year.
  • Rosa – Highwaller production could reach 600,000 t/yr = revenue of £111.6m/ year. Being conservative and assume only 50% efficient = £55.8m
  • Washed coal revenue of $8 / ton
  • Other coal opportunities indicated in the above graphic.
  • Regency Mines interests in Motzfeldt, Horse Hill  and Curzon Energy.

 

Regency have recently raised significant funds, so finance isn’t an issue. We also are expecting news regarding Horse Hill, providing additional capital.

Regency have 3.35% of Horse Hill as indicated in the following graphic.

IMG_1567

Based on information in the public domain you have to question how the market cap of the business can remain c£3.5m for much longer.

What will be the catalyst resulting in a share price re-rate?

Will it be?

1.  Market realising the implications of the revenue streams and significant under valuation of the business?

2. Announcement about Rosa – production or management team.

3. Announcement regarding Horse Hill.

4. Curzon announcement.

5. Motzfeldt announcement.

It is clear without any announcements regarding the above five points the share price at its current level of 0.55p offers significant upside.

The imminent revenue streams and share price have no correlation.

Obviously the Chairman believes great upside as he has twice in recent months bought shares on the open market at above 1p a share.

This share will re-rate very quickly on news or when investors realise the revenue that is as good as guaranteed with plant on site, permits in place and off take agreements signed.

Is the share price at the minute a joke or is the lack of communication from the business deliberate?

Could it be Regency aren’t keeping investors informed whilst they assist  somebody to obtain shares with a low entry price?

Whatever is happening it’s a great opportunity for private investors.

Metal Tiger investing in #Thailand. #MTR

The Thailand IPO is due to happen in June/July 2017.

This will be when Metal Tiger shareholders will be ‘given’ shares in KEMCO the new Thai company.

Not many companies you can invest in knowing that in the very near future you will be the beneficiary of shares in another company. What is even more compelling is the current share price of Metal Tiger doesn’t take into account any value for Thailand.

KEMCO will be launched in June/July and this will be followed by events that will potentially have a positive impact on the share price. These being:

1. Thailand new permitting requirements goes live in August.

2. MTR apply for relevant permits August.

3. Kingsgate started their 3 month consultation period regarding the closure of their Thai mine at tthe beginning of April. Positive outcome announced July/August would have impact on sentiment towards KEMCO.

4. Directors and Major shareholders of MTR have been exercising their warrants. If this continues it is a clear indication all are preparing to ensure they are entitled to as many ‘free’ KEMCO shares as possible.

5. Announcement about key investors who have taken part in the KEMCO IPO.

Thailand venture is approaching a 3 month period when announcements are expected that will have a positive impact on market sentiment.

 

We also have Botswana with the current delay associated with environmental permits due to come to an end as announcements on applications submitted and awarded released to market.

 

Tiger shareholders who have researched the business can see the bottleneck of news that is coming. Investor sentiment could change overnight with the announcement of any one of the above events.

IMG_1497

#RGM cheap production of expensive coals

Regency issue newsletter highlighting their plans for coal production (see here).

IMG_1441

Some of the key highlights:

  • Regency focusing on ‘cheap production of expensive coals
  • Focusing on metallurgical coal rather than dirty coal. Required for steel production.
  • Rosa announced coal reserve of 453,000 tons is very low as:
    • Based on 300′ auger rather than 1200′ Highwaller mining.
    • more coal identified
  • Val has 100,000 tons/month production target
  • production / revenue stream imminent.
  • RGM have first mover advantage.
  • Rosa coal at $130/t = $4.5m net attributable profit.

As news is released the share price will react accordingly. It is clear from the newsletter that further information is going to be released to the market.

The business is aware figures released to the market are conservative. We await the revised NI 43 101 report and also for RGM to release actual coal outputs. The market will then realise the business is undervalued.

 

 

 

 

Chartists all predicting significant uplift in #MTR share price

The Metal Tiger share price is currently 2.95p.

The following Chartists all predict a significant uplift to the share price is imminent.

Bonkers99

Predicting share price will increase with a target of 7p – c13p

IMG_1375

Nic Trades

Predicting share price will rise to a target of 4.1p to 5.87p

IMG_1373

Emergo Charts

Using the Elliot Wave Theory predicting share price of  4.17p – 4.75p.

IMG_1374

Zac Mir

In this video Zac predicts share price will test 4.5p.

IMG_1377.PNG

The Chartists are therefore predicting an uplift of the share price of between 39% and 340%.

This is also supported  by the fact that all the indicators are that everything is becoming aligned fir a share rerate (see here).

 

This graphic indicates the near term news and events that could push the share price higher.

IMG_1379

Finally this chart indicates the disparity between the MOD Resources share price and Metal Tigers.

IMG_1381

All the indicators are the current Metal Tiger share price of 2.95p makes no sense and a rerate is going to happen.

 

#MTR – Swiss cheese model and the impact on the share price.

Analysts and Chartists are predicting the Metal Tiger share price is going to re-rate upwards.

Many follow what these ‘experts’ say and this can become a self-fulfilling prophesy. The herd arrive and the share price goes up.

The Swiss Cheese model suggests that when everything aligned the unexpected happens. The share price rise could therefore when it happens according to the theory be significant.

IMG_1317

1. Resource  increases

These have been happening for a while and are covered in these two blogs.

MTR stunning results under T3. link

MTR results due. link

MTR RNS dated the 6th March (see here) also highlights that data will be released to the market soon.

 

2. Strong fundamentals, business strategy and leadership

Charles Hall (Chairman) and Michael McNeilly (CEO) recently appointed with other board changes.

IMG_1320

This link takes you to an interview with Charles and Michael. Interview highlights the changes that have and will be taking place.

Metal Tiger is a private investor friendly business. It was no surprise when Charles a private investor with a T1 holding was appointed Chairman.

3. Analysts all agree share price will head North 

a) Broker99

Broker99 a Chartist who seems to get it right more than wrong, predicts a breakout of the sp at 2.7p with a prediction that will rise to 4p+ and then 6p plus, when, if more news comes could go to c21p.

IMG_1314

This Chartist also points out that support is now very strong at the 2.2p level, significantly reducing any downside risk.

We also have Star Tom from Blueshare predicting a share price breakout.IMG_1331

The support and resistance points on the above charts are similar to analysis from Barchart.com. See table below.

IMG_1326

Other Chartists such as Zak Mir have also strongly supported Metal Tiger predicting share price movement North.

b) Technical Data (comparing MTR and MOD Resources).

Looking at the technical data for MTR and MOD indicates that both are strong buys.

IMG_1323

What is interesting with the data is both companies share price movement is primarily based on the Botswana prospect news. Because MTR’s share price is being held back it means MOD buy opinion is 50% stronger than MTR’s.

This distortion has to correct its self eventually.

c) Technical data

The following tables highlight for those who trade based on technical analysis that MTR is a very strong buy.

4. Investor awareness and sentiment change

Investor  awareness is definitely changing and this is evidenced by the following:

a) Wider awareness.

MTR has for a while been discussed predominately on the following forums:

  • Blueshare
  • LSE
  • Hotcopper

Over the last week discussion has also been happening on:

  • Ceo.ca
  • Discussthemarket.com
  • Stockgumshoe.com

This indicates Metal Tiger investor awareness base is widening.

b) Trading volumes

Volumes of share trades are also increasing. Following table indicates average volume has gone from 6.5m to 12m in the last 6 months.

IMG_1318

Twice as much interest. This as the share price increases creates a solid new investor base. Those who trade are now in at a higher price than previously, meaning to realise a profit the sp needs to rise higher.

c) Negative comments about MTR business

LSE is a forum that several posters use to spread negative comments, as they either have or work for somebody with a short position. It is noticeable the number of these posters has significantly decreased.

Some are now actively promoting MTR indicating they have gone long. We now only have one or two left who either are carrying baggage against individuals connected with MTR or who enjoy being confrontational.

Sentiment on bulletin boards is definitely changing and now mainly has a positive bias.

 

Conclusion

Mice are nibbling around the edges trying to prevent the sp from rising. The cheese holes are however all aligning, with many aligned and LTH’s are about to reap the rewards.

Those that hope to benefit from keeping the share price low will soon be shocked by a significant sp re-rate. The share price rerate will be quick and the impact devastating for those who haven’t realised it’s coming.

IMG_1319

Possible reasons why the Metal Tiger share price has not reacted to the significant news from Botswana can be found here.