Category Archives: Uncategorized

#RGM – Will the doors be blown off?

Regency Mine news is well over due. The news regarding the Rosa coal mine when it arrives will ‘blow the doors off’.

Zac Mir, renowned charting analyst in his last update, on the 21st July said;

Indeed, with the 200 day line still rising even after the retracement of recent months one would be happy currently to err on the side of a sizeable rebound.”

The following table indicates the percentage change to the 200 day moving average.

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This is a link to Zac’s article.

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Chartists are taking their positions. It is noticeable over the last week that a significant increase has happened with regard to the number of tweets regarding Regency Mines.

Investing based on analysis of the technicals can become a self fulfilling prophesy.

In the case of Regency Mines however we also have the following events or news that could drop at anytime.

1. Market realising the implications of the revenue streams and significant under valuation of the business? Follow this link for additional information.

2. Announcement about Rosa – production or management team.

3. Announcement regarding Horse Hill. UKOG investment now valued at £750k+.

4. Curzon announcement.

5. Motzfeldt announcement.

Investors following the charts or news from RGM could be the catalyst for a share price rerate. Any small increase in buying pressure should move the sp to a new much higher base level.

The  “doors will be blown off” it’s  just a matter of when.

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Is Regency Mines #RGM share price a joke?

The following graphic indicates that based on Vali Carbon Corporation alone the revenue for RGM will be a minimum of £9.3m per year and if output reaches 100,000 tpm £18.6m.

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These revenue figures take no account of:

  • Rosa – year 2 production expected to be 120,000 tpm = revenue of £22.32m/year.
  • Rosa – Highwaller production could reach 600,000 tpm = revenue of £111.6m/ year. Being conservative and assume only 50% efficient = £55.8m
  • Washed coal revenue of $8 / ton
  • Other coal opportunities indicated in the above graphic.
  • Regency Mines interests in Motzfeldt, Horse Hill  and Curzon Energy.

 

Regency have recently raised significant funds, so finance isn’t an issue. We also are expecting news regarding Horse Hill, providing additional capital.

Regency have 3.35% of Horse Hill as indicated in the following graphic.

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Based on information in the public domain you have to question how the market cap of the business can remain c£3.5m for much longer.

What will be the catalyst resulting in a share price re-rate?

Will it be?

1.  Market realising the implications of the revenue streams and significant under valuation of the business?

2. Announcement about Rosa – production or management team.

3. Announcement regarding Horse Hill.

4. Curzon announcement.

5. Motzfeldt announcement.

It is clear without any announcements regarding the above five points the share price at its current level of 0.55p offers significant upside.

The imminent revenue streams and share price have no correlation.

Obviously the Chairman believes great upside as he has twice in recent months bought shares on the open market at above 1p a share.

This share will re-rate very quickly on news or when investors realise the revenue that is as good as guaranteed with plant on site, permits in place and off take agreements signed.

Is the share price at the minute a joke or is the lack of communication from the business deliberate?

Could it be Regency aren’t keeping investors informed whilst they assist  somebody to obtain shares with a low entry price?

Whatever is happening it’s a great opportunity for private investors.

Metal Tiger investing in #Thailand. #MTR

The Thailand IPO is due to happen in June/July 2017.

This will be when Metal Tiger shareholders will be ‘given’ shares in KEMCO the new Thai company.

Not many companies you can invest in knowing that in the very near future you will be the beneficiary of shares in another company. What is even more compelling is the current share price of Metal Tiger doesn’t take into account any value for Thailand.

KEMCO will be launched in June/July and this will be followed by events that will potentially have a positive impact on the share price. These being:

1. Thailand new permitting requirements goes live in August.

2. MTR apply for relevant permits August.

3. Kingsgate started their 3 month consultation period regarding the closure of their Thai mine at tthe beginning of April. Positive outcome announced July/August would have impact on sentiment towards KEMCO.

4. Directors and Major shareholders of MTR have been exercising their warrants. If this continues it is a clear indication all are preparing to ensure they are entitled to as many ‘free’ KEMCO shares as possible.

5. Announcement about key investors who have taken part in the KEMCO IPO.

Thailand venture is approaching a 3 month period when announcements are expected that will have a positive impact on market sentiment.

 

We also have Botswana with the current delay associated with environmental permits due to come to an end as announcements on applications submitted and awarded released to market.

 

Tiger shareholders who have researched the business can see the bottleneck of news that is coming. Investor sentiment could change overnight with the announcement of any one of the above events.

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#RGM cheap production of expensive coals

Regency issue newsletter highlighting their plans for coal production (see here).

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Some of the key highlights:

  • Regency focusing on ‘cheap production of expensive coals
  • Focusing on metallurgical coal rather than dirty coal. Required for steel production.
  • Rosa announced coal reserve of 453,000 tons is very low as:
    • Based on 300′ auger rather than 1200′ Highwaller mining.
    • more coal identified
  • Val has 100,000 tons/month production target
  • production / revenue stream imminent.
  • RGM have first mover advantage.
  • Rosa coal at $130/t = $4.5m net attributable profit.

As news is released the share price will react accordingly. It is clear from the newsletter that further information is going to be released to the market.

The business is aware figures released to the market are conservative. We await the revised NI 43 101 report and also for RGM to release actual coal outputs. The market will then realise the business is undervalued.

 

 

 

 

#RGM potential revenue £9.3m to £55m+?

The Regency Mines RNS today (see here) highlighted two significant developments:

1. Rosa – mine permits in place and production has commenced with a weekly revenue stream.

2. Vali Carbon Corporation – 50,000 tpm offtake contract being negotiated.

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The following graphic indicates that based on Vali Carbon Corporation alone the revenue for RGM will be a minimum of £9.3m per year and if output reaches 100,000 tpm £18.6m.

IMG_1418

These revenue figures take no account of:

  • Rosa – year 2 production expected to be 120,000 tpm = revenue of £22.32m/year.
  • Rosa – Highwaller production could reach 600,000 tpm = revenue of £111.6m/ year. Being conservative and assume only 50% efficient = £55.8m
  • Washed coal revenue of $8 / ton
  • Other coal opportunities indicated in the above graphic.
  • Regency Mines interests in Motzfeldt, Horse Hill, Mambae and Curzon Energy.

 

Based on information in the public domain you have to question how the market cap of the business can remain c£5m for much longer.

What will be the catalyst resulting in a share price rerate?

Will it be?

1. The 50,000 tpm offtake contract currently being negotiated being announced to the market.

2. Market realising the implications of the revenue streams and significant under valuation of the business.

3. Announcements from the company regarding their other investment interests.

Chartists all predicting significant uplift in #MTR share price

The Metal Tiger share price is currently 2.95p.

The following Chartists all predict a significant uplift to the share price is imminent.

Bonkers99

Predicting share price will increase with a target of 7p – c13p

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Nic Trades

Predicting share price will rise to a target of 4.1p to 5.87p

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Emergo Charts

Using the Elliot Wave Theory predicting share price of  4.17p – 4.75p.

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Zac Mir

In this video Zac predicts share price will test 4.5p.

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The Chartists are therefore predicting an uplift of the share price of between 39% and 340%.

This is also supported  by the fact that all the indicators are that everything is becoming aligned fir a share rerate (see here).

 

This graphic indicates the near term news and events that could push the share price higher.

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Finally this chart indicates the disparity between the MOD Resources share price and Metal Tigers.

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All the indicators are the current Metal Tiger share price of 2.95p makes no sense and a rerate is going to happen.

 

#MTR – Swiss cheese model and the impact on the share price.

Analysts and Chartists are predicting the Metal Tiger share price is going to re-rate upwards.

Many follow what these ‘experts’ say and this can become a self-fulfilling prophesy. The herd arrive and the share price goes up.

The Swiss Cheese model suggests that when everything aligned the unexpected happens. The share price rise could therefore when it happens according to the theory be significant.

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1. Resource  increases

These have been happening for a while and are covered in these two blogs.

MTR stunning results under T3. link

MTR results due. link

MTR RNS dated the 6th March (see here) also highlights that data will be released to the market soon.

 

2. Strong fundamentals, business strategy and leadership

Charles Hall (Chairman) and Michael McNeilly (CEO) recently appointed with other board changes.

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This link takes you to an interview with Charles and Michael. Interview highlights the changes that have and will be taking place.

Metal Tiger is a private investor friendly business. It was no surprise when Charles a private investor with a T1 holding was appointed Chairman.

3. Analysts all agree share price will head North 

a) Broker99

Broker99 a Chartist who seems to get it right more than wrong, predicts a breakout of the sp at 2.7p with a prediction that will rise to 4p+ and then 6p plus, when, if more news comes could go to c21p.

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This Chartist also points out that support is now very strong at the 2.2p level, significantly reducing any downside risk.

We also have Star Tom from Blueshare predicting a share price breakout.IMG_1331

The support and resistance points on the above charts are similar to analysis from Barchart.com. See table below.

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Other Chartists such as Zak Mir have also strongly supported Metal Tiger predicting share price movement North.

b) Technical Data (comparing MTR and MOD Resources).

Looking at the technical data for MTR and MOD indicates that both are strong buys.

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What is interesting with the data is both companies share price movement is primarily based on the Botswana prospect news. Because MTR’s share price is being held back it means MOD buy opinion is 50% stronger than MTR’s.

This distortion has to correct its self eventually.

c) Technical data

The following tables highlight for those who trade based on technical analysis that MTR is a very strong buy.

4. Investor awareness and sentiment change

Investor  awareness is definitely changing and this is evidenced by the following:

a) Wider awareness.

MTR has for a while been discussed predominately on the following forums:

  • Blueshare
  • LSE
  • Hotcopper

Over the last week discussion has also been happening on:

  • Ceo.ca
  • Discussthemarket.com
  • Stockgumshoe.com

This indicates Metal Tiger investor awareness base is widening.

b) Trading volumes

Volumes of share trades are also increasing. Following table indicates average volume has gone from 6.5m to 12m in the last 6 months.

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Twice as much interest. This as the share price increases creates a solid new investor base. Those who trade are now in at a higher price than previously, meaning to realise a profit the sp needs to rise higher.

c) Negative comments about MTR business

LSE is a forum that several posters use to spread negative comments, as they either have or work for somebody with a short position. It is noticeable the number of these posters has significantly decreased.

Some are now actively promoting MTR indicating they have gone long. We now only have one or two left who either are carrying baggage against individuals connected with MTR or who enjoy being confrontational.

Sentiment on bulletin boards is definitely changing and now mainly has a positive bias.

 

Conclusion

Mice are nibbling around the edges trying to prevent the sp from rising. The cheese holes are however all aligning, with many aligned and LTH’s are about to reap the rewards.

Those that hope to benefit from keeping the share price low will soon be shocked by a significant sp re-rate. The share price rerate will be quick and the impact devastating for those who haven’t realised it’s coming.

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Possible reasons why the Metal Tiger share price has not reacted to the significant news from Botswana can be found here.