Tag Archives: greets

Metal Tiger investing in #Thailand. #MTR

The Thailand IPO is due to happen in June/July 2017.

This will be when Metal Tiger shareholders will be ‘given’ shares in KEMCO the new Thai company.

Not many companies you can invest in knowing that in the very near future you will be the beneficiary of shares in another company. What is even more compelling is the current share price of Metal Tiger doesn’t take into account any value for Thailand.

KEMCO will be launched in June/July and this will be followed by events that will potentially have a positive impact on the share price. These being:

1. Thailand new permitting requirements goes live in August.

2. MTR apply for relevant permits August.

3. Kingsgate started their 3 month consultation period regarding the closure of their Thai mine at tthe beginning of April. Positive outcome announced July/August would have impact on sentiment towards KEMCO.

4. Directors and Major shareholders of MTR have been exercising their warrants. If this continues it is a clear indication all are preparing to ensure they are entitled to as many ‘free’ KEMCO shares as possible.

5. Announcement about key investors who have taken part in the KEMCO IPO.

Thailand venture is approaching a 3 month period when announcements are expected that will have a positive impact on market sentiment.

 

We also have Botswana with the current delay associated with environmental permits due to come to an end as announcements on applications submitted and awarded released to market.

 

Tiger shareholders who have researched the business can see the bottleneck of news that is coming. Investor sentiment could change overnight with the announcement of any one of the above events.

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#RGM cheap production of expensive coals

Regency issue newsletter highlighting their plans for coal production (see here).

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Some of the key highlights:

  • Regency focusing on ‘cheap production of expensive coals
  • Focusing on metallurgical coal rather than dirty coal. Required for steel production.
  • Rosa announced coal reserve of 453,000 tons is very low as:
    • Based on 300′ auger rather than 1200′ Highwaller mining.
    • more coal identified
  • Val has 100,000 tons/month production target
  • production / revenue stream imminent.
  • RGM have first mover advantage.
  • Rosa coal at $130/t = $4.5m net attributable profit.

As news is released the share price will react accordingly. It is clear from the newsletter that further information is going to be released to the market.

The business is aware figures released to the market are conservative. We await the revised NI 43 101 report and also for RGM to release actual coal outputs. The market will then realise the business is undervalued.

 

 

 

 

#RGM potential revenue £9.3m to £55m+?

The Regency Mines RNS today (see here) highlighted two significant developments:

1. Rosa – mine permits in place and production has commenced with a weekly revenue stream.

2. Vali Carbon Corporation – 50,000 tpm offtake contract being negotiated.

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The following graphic indicates that based on Vali Carbon Corporation alone the revenue for RGM will be a minimum of £9.3m per year and if output reaches 100,000 tpm £18.6m.

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These revenue figures take no account of:

  • Rosa – year 2 production expected to be 120,000 tpm = revenue of £22.32m/year.
  • Rosa – Highwaller production could reach 600,000 tpm = revenue of £111.6m/ year. Being conservative and assume only 50% efficient = £55.8m
  • Washed coal revenue of $8 / ton
  • Other coal opportunities indicated in the above graphic.
  • Regency Mines interests in Motzfeldt, Horse Hill, Mambae and Curzon Energy.

 

Based on information in the public domain you have to question how the market cap of the business can remain c£5m for much longer.

What will be the catalyst resulting in a share price rerate?

Will it be?

1. The 50,000 tpm offtake contract currently being negotiated being announced to the market.

2. Market realising the implications of the revenue streams and significant under valuation of the business.

3. Announcements from the company regarding their other investment interests.

#MTR fund raising and MOD Resources.

Metal Tiger placing has created some unrest amongst smaller private investors with many believing the dilution of their shareholdings has benefited the BOD and major investors.

In fact the BOD and major investors have also seen their shareholdings diluted.

So why has the Metal Tiger placing happened when the share price so low?

What we do know is MOD have said they intend to drill the life out of T3. To do that they need funding.

We now have A$5.46m (c£3.19m) raised by MOD resources with institutional investors partaking. MOD Resources are ready to start drilling T3 in early January 2017.

What would have happened to the MTR share price if they hadn’t already had their placing? In all probability the MTR share price would have gone down as investors would know MTR need to fund 30% of the T3 exploration. This scenario would have resulted in the MTR placing being at lower levels than has already occurred.

It looks like MTR had no choice but to raise the necessary funding when they did.

We know the CEO of MTR and MOD BOD members, together, attended meetings with potential funders during MOD boards recent visit to the UK. Is it possible as a result of these meetings, institutional investors indicated willingness to invest in MOD?

If that’s the case this could explain why MTR offered warrants as part of their placing and MOD haven’t.

It is going to be interesting to see what happens to the share price of MTR as a result of this news.

Investing is about the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.

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#MTR getting closer to an offer?

The Quarterly Activities Report issued today contains information that indicates MTR’s strategy of proving up resources and transferring increased asset value into shareholder returns is moving closer to fruition.

The report states:

1. MOD/MTR joint venture is receiving interest from third parties, including major mining organisations and investment funds.

2. Metal Tiger have recently received interest in their 30% position in the JV and the company continues the liaise with third parties.

We also have the General Meeting today passing both resolutions, moving the company closer to the position of being able to distribute assets too shareholders. The court order will follow.

The following events are IMHO reasons to believe the company is moving closer to fulfilling their strategy of returning value to shareholders:

  • Weak pound, whilst it lasts, makes now a good opportunity for overseas investors or companies to make an offer for MTR’s investment in Botswana.
  • JV have changed their strategy and are focusing prospecting the T3 dome. Is this to maximise the known potential of the area before a formal offer us tabled?
  • Both MOD and MTR are receiving interest from major mining companies or investment companies. This is the first time we have been informed both companies are being pursued.
  • Recent RNS stated:

1. Reinterpretation of magnetics data has resulted in drilling being refocused on the T3 dome. It must be significant when MOD have previously stated that other zones are potentially better than T3. I wonder what MOD have seen that has made them change their plan?

Or was this a subtle way of letting any potential buyer know that MOD/MTR intend to keep increasing their knowledge of the T3 area and the JORC information released to date is only part of the story?

2. Deep IP hole arisings had visible copper mineralisation and the assay results are now awaited.

MOD mentioning what they have indicates they expect the assay data to be significant. If they didn’t, why have they mentioned in an announcement to the market?

It is definitely a good way of letting any potential buyer know that the JORC information is only the tip of the resource.

 

MTR made an investment of $100k in Botswana. The returns look as if they will be substantial when you consider that T3, if this is the area of any offer, is less than 1% of the JV licence area.

T2 apparently is a more promising prospect.

#MTR Botswana mine costs.

Mined copper grades are predicted to fall in the coming years.

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This is the perfect storm for companies like Metal Tiger as the Joint venture prospect with MOD has high copper grades.

Lower operating costs and competitors being less efficient, should translate into greater profits for the MOD/MTR mine when production commences.

MTR/ MOD T3 mine will also be open pit making the opex costs low compared with the  underground mines due to come on line in the coming years.

Asiamet Resources will have costs of $6500/t, this being in the bottom quartile when compared with its competitors. Cupric the adjacent mining operation to T3 will have costs of $6460/t. With T3 grades being higher than the Cupric mine the T3 costs are likely to be significantly less making the MOD/MTR mine vey competitive.

It is easy to see why major players in the industry are showing an interest in Metal Tiger and its Botswana T3 prospect.

 

 

 

WRES – share price continues to rise.

WRES have had a few days of gains and chartists have now had confirmation of a symmetrical triangle pattern. Whilst these can indicate trend reversals, they normally mark a continuation of the current trend.

The share price should, if traders act on the chart information, continue to rise creating a nice base to kick from when the JORC information is released.

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